3 targets

Just been reading daily tip 18 on the ING NY marathon website.
http://www.ingnycmarathon.org/training/dtip18.php

Basically saying, set 3 targets: An ideal sceanrio, plus two others.

The tip 18 says that in an ideal scenario you would finish in double your 1/2 marathon time + 15-20 minutes. My 1/2 marathon time was 1:52

That would make my ideal scenario finish of 3:59 - 4:04 hours. That scenario would be me in peak form, no injuries and no unforseen circumstances on the day.

I'm going to be realistic, and say that my chances of meeting scenario 1 have long long gone.

So, I need to set two more realistic goals.

Scenario 2: I've not trained any further than 15 miles (and that will have been 8 weeks before the marathon), before all the injury problems. So, I've not got the endurance training I needed. In this scenario though,I don't get an injury issues on the day, or none that affect my performance. In this scenario I'm estimating a finish of 4:30.

Scenario 3: I've not had enough endurance training and injury strikes on the day, in the latter half of the race. It seriously affects my performance, but I am able to finish albeit with some periods of walking and ITB stretching. I finish in a time of 5 hours+.

I'll have to include the other possible scenario, because it is more than a possibility, given my current form. The ITB injury starts causing pain from 2-3 miles. By 6 miles it causes serious discomfort, by 8 miles I'm half-limping. By 10 miles I'm having to walk and stretch the ITB every few hundred yards to be able to run the next few hundred. By 12 miles I've had to retire.

It's not pleasant to think about that last one, but I think I've got to consider it as a possibilty, and prepare my mind for it. I'm going to be thinking positive from now on, and remembering all the good parts of my training. I will however be considering all of the above scenario's and planning in my mind for each.